Quantitative trading · Event markets
Every price is a forecast. We make them truer.
Libertas Veritas Prosperitas is a quantitative trading firm built for prediction markets. We quote, price and research event contracts on elections, economics, weather, sport and culture, continuously, across the world's leading venues.
Libertas · Veritas · Prosperitas
Three words, one discipline
A motto we hold ourselves to, in that order.
Libertas
LibertyOpen, well-designed markets let anyone put a price on what they believe. We exist to make those markets deep enough to matter: tight spreads, real size, at three in the morning as well as on election night.
Veritas
TruthA market is only useful if its prices are honest probabilities. We measure ourselves on calibration, not narrative, and we publish how we think about it.
Prosperitas
ProsperityLiquidity is a public good with a private return. When the firm earns its spread fairly, venues grow, forecasts improve and the people who use them make better decisions.
What we do
Four activities, one research stack.
We are a principal trading firm. Everything below is done with our own capital, our own models and our own engineering.
Market making
Continuous two-sided quotes in event contracts, sized to the market, skewed to inventory, repriced the moment information arrives.
02Systematic forecasting
Fair-value models for macro releases, elections, weather, sport and entertainment, combining structural models, polling, alternative data and the order book itself.
03Cross-venue relative value
The same question often trades in several places under slightly different rules. We price the differences in resolution criteria, fees and settlement, and keep prices consistent.
04Venue partnerships
We work with exchanges and market designers on new listings, liquidity programmes and contract design, so markets launch with depth on day one.
Technology
Built in-house, from the event feed to the matching engine edge.
Our platform ingests thousands of structured and unstructured sources, from statistical agency release calendars and polling aggregates to weather model runs and official league data, and turns them into calibrated probabilities and quotes within milliseconds. Every quote is explainable: which signal moved it, by how much, and why.
Illustrative. A simplified view of how fair value and spread move together. Not a live feed, and not an offer to trade.
Veritas, measured
We are graded by the outcome, every single time.
Event contracts are unusually honest instruments: each one resolves to a hard 0 or 1. That makes calibration auditable. We track Brier score, log loss and calibration error per category, per venue and per model release, and we hold no model to a lower standard than the market it trades against.
For exchanges & market designers
Launch markets with depth on day one.
We support a top-3 US-regulated event exchange, a leading on-chain prediction market and several specialist venues with liquidity, contract-design feedback and post-launch analytics.
Contract review
Resolution source, edge cases, tick size and fee schedule, reviewed before listing so the market can be priced cleanly.
Launch liquidity
Committed two-sided quotes from minute one, with agreed spread and size targets.
Ongoing depth
Coverage through news, overnight and into resolution, the hours when liquidity usually disappears.
Market quality reporting
Monthly spread, depth, uptime and price-efficiency reporting, so you can see what the programme is worth.
Research
Notes from the desk.
We publish what we can about the economics and mathematics of event markets. Practitioner-level, with formulas where they help.
Market making in prediction markets: a practitioner's guide
How a professional liquidity provider quotes event contracts: spreads, inventory, jump risk, fees and the economics that make it work.
N°04How to price event contracts: probabilities, fees and time
A price of 63¢ does not quite mean 63%. Here is how to turn an event-contract price into a probability, and a probability into a price.
N°03Kalshi vs Polymarket: market structure for professional traders
The two largest prediction market venues ask similar questions in very different ways. For a liquidity provider, the differences matter more than the similarities.
N°02Forecast calibration: Brier score, log loss and why markets keep winning
If every forecast ends in a 0 or a 1, you can grade every forecaster honestly. Here is how we do it, and what it says about markets.
Careers
Small teams. Hard questions. Answers that settle at 0 or 1.
We hire quantitative researchers, engineers and forecasters who like being proven right or wrong by the world. No sales targets, no client book, no politics. Just models, markets and the outcome.
The honest coin
A contract pays $1 if a fair coin, flipped 100 times, shows at least 60 heads. After 50 flips you have seen 34 heads. What is a fair price for the contract, to the nearest cent, and how much should it move on the next flip if it lands tails?
Questions
Frequently asked.
What does Libertas Veritas Prosperitas do?
We are a proprietary quantitative trading firm focused on prediction markets and event contracts. We provide two-sided liquidity, build fair-value models for real-world outcomes (economics, politics, weather, sport, culture), and publish research on how these markets price information.
Is Libertas Veritas Prosperitas a market maker on prediction markets?
Yes. Market making is our core activity: we quote continuous bids and offers across thousands of event contracts on regulated exchanges and on-chain venues, where we are permitted to do so. Venues and market designers can reach our partnerships desk through the venue programme.
Do you manage money for clients or accept outside investors?
No. We trade only our own capital. We do not offer investment products, take deposits, or provide investment advice, and nothing on this site is a solicitation.
How do prediction market makers make money?
Mostly by earning the bid-ask spread on large numbers of small, uncorrelated trades, while keeping inventory risk low through hedging and fast re-pricing. Our note Market making in prediction markets walks through the economics in detail.
Are you hiring?
Continuously, for quantitative researchers, trading engineers and forecasting specialists. See open roles or try the monthly puzzle.